Housing Development Agency – new homes completed *
Delivering 1,000 additional affordable homes**
Delivering 1,000 additional affordable homes
The methodology agreed by the Executive Board for monitoring the 1,000 additional homes means that only once housing delivery exceeds the level needed to meet the Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire Local Plan requirements can any affordable homes on eligible sites be considered as ‘additional’ and count towards this target. Each year the Greater Cambridge housing trajectory is rebased taking into account developer updates on planned delivery and actual completions. These figures are published in both Councils’ Annual Monitoring Reports (AMRs) in December. The rebased housing trajectory in the December 2017 AMRs shows a slight increase in the completions delivered for 2016/17 but some slippage for some of the projected completions over the next couple of years. This means that it is anticipated that there will now be a surplus of completions compared to the cumulative annualised requirement in 2020/21, rather than in 2019/20 as previously predicted. Therefore it is estimated based on current information that any affordable homes on eligible sites anticipated to be delivered from 2020/21 can be counted towards the delivery of the 1,000 additional affordable homes.
Until 2020/21, affordable homes being completed are counting towards delivering the Greater Cambridge housing requirement of 33,500 dwellings.
The table above shows that on the basis of known planning permissions and planning applications with a resolution to grant planning permission that 762 (as opposed to the previously estimated figure of 923) affordable homes on eligible sites are likely to be delivered towards the target of 1,000 by 2031, consistent with the approach to monitoring agreed by the Executive Board. In practice this means that we already expect to be able to deliver 76% of the target on the basis of current decisions alone. However, this is shown as Amber because the projection for practical reasons is drawn only from known sites.
Overall the housing trajectory shows that 38,080 dwellings are anticipated in Greater Cambridge between 2011 and 2031, which is 4,580 dwellings more than the housing requirement of 33,500 dwellings.
There remains 13 years of the period to 2031 outstanding during which affordable homes on other eligible sites will continue to come forward, providing additional affordable homes that will count towards this target. However, due to the nature of rural exception sites and windfall sites, these cannot be robustly forecast up to 2031. Historically there is good evidence of rural exception sites being delivered at a rate of around 50 dwellings per year, therefore we can be confident that the target will be achieved.